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| Heat maps showing the Severity Index during the Global Financial Crisis; see the main text for an explanation. |
In February 2026, The Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy published a research paper I wrote, on measuring recessions. I looked at different ways to measure a recession's depth and impact. I then applied these to data across the United States, Canada, and Australia, to measure the effects of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 and the COVID-19 recession of 2020 across the various states, provinces, and territories. The results revealed considerable variations across and between the countries, and I concluded that national governments should aim to target support measures during recessions, instead of implementing one-size-fits-all solutions. The abstract and a link to the full paper are below:
This paper presents several metrics to measure the severity of recessions; these are then applied to subnational jurisdictions in the United States, Canada, and Australia during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 crisis, in terms of real GDP per capita. The results (presented in detailed tables) suggest that metrics that distinguish between the contraction and recovery phases of a recession are more informative than those that attempt to measure overall severity, as the former class facilitates comparisons of pre- and post-crisis growth, indicating potential structural shifts. Direct application of the metrics to seventy-two states, provinces, and territories in the United States, Canada, and Australia reveals significant regional variation. In all three countries, there was greater variety during the GFC, with more uniformity during COVID-19. Overall, Australian states and territories performed best during both crises, and Canada’s provinces and territories generally did better than American states during the GFC. Yet in North America, several jurisdictions contracted so severely during the GFC that they have yet to recover. In many other jurisdictions, growth after the GFC was slower than the pre-crisis trend, which potentially indicates a GFC-induced structural change. Post-COVID-19 growth trends are more difficult to discern at this point, given the lack of data, but growth in the United States seems more robust. These results suggest that when responding to an unfolding recession, national governments should target support to regions where the crisis is most acute, instead of implementing blanket national support measures.